Inflation Flat in June As Slowdown Continues

Inflation Flat in June As Slowdown Continues

Traders will also be looking at the United States consumer price index (CPI) data as the next important inflection point with year-on-year inflation rate estimated to decline for a fourth consecutive month by 1.7 percent in June following a similar gain in May, it would also be the lowest since November 2016. The pound has taken some support from a round of hawkish signals from Bank of England policymakers last week, and there are still some in the market looking out for a rise in interest rates next month.

Markets expectations are for both core and headline inflation to stay at 1.7%.

A big reason why bond yields climbed Thursday, some analysts and investors said, was a report from The Wall Street Journal that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is scheduled to address the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference in August. "After Fed chair Yellen's somewhat cautious statement for her testimony suggested that the FOMC could ease back in its tightening if inflation persists, this has added anticipation of today's US CPI numbers", commented Richard Perry in a note this morning.

The increase in core prices reflected 0.2% growth in shelter prices as well as higher prices for medical care, motor vehicle insurance, education, and personal care. That has eased concerns the Fed was raising interest rates too quickly. The CPI dropped 0.1 per cent in May and the lack of a rebound in June could trouble Fed officials who have largely viewed the recent moderation in price pressures as transitory.

The euro was up 0.37 percent against the greenback to $1.1437 and sterling was 1.07 percent higher at $1.3073, after hitting $1.3082, its highest since September 23, 2016.

USA two-year yields slid as well, down at 1.343 percent, from 1.355 percent before the data's release.




Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales slipped 0.1 per cent last month after being unchanged in May.

"Alongside are retail sales, where we expect on-consensus gains and a solid core sales pickup", said TD securities in their week ahead report. Meanwhile, growth and inflation has started to show with more consistency in Europe and the United Kingdom, and this has led to even more deductive weakness in the Greenback as traders shift rate hike bets in the Euro and British Pound.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 84.65 points, or 0.39 percent, to 21,637.74. It was poised for a weekly gain of 1.3 percent, the biggest since mid-May. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.3 percent to 5,751.10.

For the week, silver is on track for a gain of around 1.5%.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 rose 46 cents to settle at $46.54 per barrel.

Oil rose 1 percent on Friday, boosted by lower USA stockpiles, a slight slowdown in US crude production and signs of increased Chinese demand, but trading was volatile as global supply remained strong. Brent crude, used to price worldwide oils, was flat at $48.42 per barrel in London.

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